Guessing and Profits

All too often a painting contractor argues that he can accurately bid a job based on the square footage of the floor area. Such arguments are more than simply silly, they are an evasion of the facts.

I looked at a 2,400 square foot house yesterday. How many doors are there? How many windows? How many linear feet of baseboards? How much wall area? I’d be willing to bet a lot of money that it would take a lot of guesses before anyone came within 10% in regard to these 4 questions.

If guessing floats your boat you should probably get a job at the carnival guessing weight. And if you “calculate” your painting prices by guessing, you probably will have that opportunity pretty soon. Guessing is inherently inaccurate and an invitation for disaster.

Even if by some fluke you guess reasonably accurately, many other questions cannot be answered simply by measuring the floor area. What kind of prep is required? How many coats will be needed? Are there any access issues? What type of coating is currently on the substrates? And on and on.

Some may think that this “method” works fine for new construction. Many of the variables involved in painting are known in new construction. However, this still leaves unanswered many questions—like the actual quantity of the surfaces to be painted. Some may think that this isn’t a big deal, and I guess it isn’t. That is, unless you are in business to actually make a profit.

If you are a typical contractor, a net profit of 8% to 10% us a reasonable goal. It doesn’t take too many mistakes in estimating to wipe out that 8% to 10%. So if you want to keep on guessing in regard to prices, it is my guess you won’t be doing it very long.

© BEP Enterprises Incorporated 2008